Historically, the party in power loses congressional seats during mid-term elections. This trend caused Democrats to predict a “Blue Wave” this election year that would give them the House and the Senate. If this happens, they promise to impeach President Trump and repeal the tax cuts passed by Republicans this year.
However, there are a few problems with the “Blue Wave.” To start with, there are 33 Senate seats up for election this year and 24 of those seats belong to Democrats, while only nine Republican seats are up for election.
For Democrats to gain control of the Senate they must hold on to their 33 seats plus win two of the Republican seats. In the House, every seat is up for re-election for both parties. The Republicans hold 235 seats and Democrats hold 193 seats. To take control of the House, Democrats must hold on to their 193 seats plus win 25 Republican seats.
The problem for Democrats is that the economy is booming under President Trump.
There are now more job openings than there are job seekers, black unemployment is at a record low, workers are seeing increased wages and bonuses and the Federal Reserve is estimating second quarter American economic growth at well over 4 percent which is more than twice the growth rate under President Obama.
Newt Gingrich recently predicted that we are more likely to see a red wave than a blue wave in November because Americans are beginning to conclude that their lives are getting better, and that President Trump and Republican leadership are a part of that phenomenon.
That thought is echoed in a June 8 New York Times editorial where Ned Ryun, a veteran Republican activist, noted that “the polls now closely mirror the polls in May 2014, when Democrats went on to lose 13 House seats.
He also notes that while there are nearly 40 Republicans who are not seeking re-election, only six of them represent districts won by Hillary Clinton. Financially, Republicans are in much better shape, with the Republican National Committee holding $44 million in cash while the Democratic National Committee is $5 million in debt.”
The Times story concludes, “Nancy Pelosi, the House minority leader, is pledging higher taxes. Al Green, a seven-term Texas Democrat, and at least 58 other House Democrats are promising impeachment. But the stock market is up, wages are up, unemployment is down, and peace may be breaking out on the Korean Peninsula. How many people will vote for higher taxes and all the social and political stress associated with impeachment?”
It is not very often that I agree with the New York Times, but this is one time that I do. Forget the “Blue Wave;” watch for another “Red Wave” this November.